Codex MondragonisBeinecke MS 408 · research

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The hypotheses, put to the test of chance

Here are the hypotheses on the Voynich with their honest outcome, measured against a baseline. The famous solutions are not dismissed for taste: they are taken apart with the same yardstick applied to ours. Kondrak and Hauer announced Hebrew at 80%, but the match rate equalled chance (35% vs 35% on f1r). A method that reads noise the way it reads the manuscript has deciphered nothing.


21 of 21 · 3 still open
CiphersClosed

Alphagram / anagram

Claim. Reordered letters yield a language.

Test. acyclicity + anagram baseline

Excluded: equal to the baseline (40%=40%).

CiphersClosed

Substitution into a language

Claim. 1:1 cipher into Latin/Greek/Hebrew/Cornish/Czech/German/Slovenian/Italian.

Test. lexicon match + baseline + endings + lengths

Excluded: 0 real words at 6+ letters; = baseline.

CiphersClosed

Polyalphabetic / cryptex

Claim. Sliding key (Vigenere).

Test. conditional entropy

Excluded: it raises entropy; the Voynich is low.

CiphersClosed

Reflection (Atbash) + shift

Claim. Reversed alphabet shifted by L.

Test. entropy + endings

Does not hold: invariant or entropy increases.

CiphersClosed

Internal A/B Rosetta

Claim. Language B is A re-enciphered.

Test. 1:1 A->B remapping + baseline

Closed: no transformation; = identity.

CiphersClosed

Fillers / regular Cardan grille

Claim. Gaps filled; holes at fixed positions.

Test. position + periodicity + baseline

Unsupported: no grille; Rugg generates text WITHOUT a message.

CiphersClosed

Verbose cipher of a European language

Claim. Several glyphs = one letter.

Test. BPE: entropy vs word length

Closed: to get language-like entropy the words drop to 2-3 letters.

CiphersOpen

Verbose cipher of a monosyllabic language

Claim. An isolating Eastern language (short words).

Test. length comparison

Still open: the only technical thread to test thoroughly.

ImagesOpen

Rosettes = map

Claim. The rosettes page is topographic.

Test. morphology + literature

Shared by scholars as style/context (not an identification).

ImagesClosed

St. Peter's Square (Rome)

Claim. One rosette = the elliptical square.

Test. dating of the monuments

Excluded: colonnade 1656-67, obelisk 1586 — after the codex.

ImagesClosed

St. Mark's Square (Venice)

Claim. The center of the rosettes = St. Mark's.

Test. chronology + shape

Chronology fine, but the ring shape != a rectangular square.

ImagesOpen

Verona Arena / Colosseum

Claim. The oval ring = an amphitheater.

Test. morphological comparison

The shape holds and is period-appropriate; but the text stays mute.

ImagesClosed

Round Jerusalem

Claim. The center = the Christian holy city.

Test. cross of streets + gates

Shared schema, but the diagnostic cross of two roads is missing.

ImagesClosed

Labels = place names

Claim. The writing beside the rosettes are city names.

Test. similarity vs known toponyms + baseline

Below baseline (0.408 vs 0.406): no signal.

ImagesClosed

Zodiac labels = star names

Claim. An astronomical Rosetta stone.

Test. vs star names and lunar mansions + baseline

Below baseline (0.388 vs 0.372).

ImagesClosed

Leonardo da Vinci

Claim. The genius behind the Voynich's canals/vortices.

Test. dating + style + paleography

Excluded: born 1452; medieval drawings, not Leonardesque.

Published solutionsClosed

Kondrak & Hauer — Hebrew 80% (Alberta 2018)

Claim. Hebrew alphagram; 80% of words in the dictionary.

Test. alphagram->dictionary + baseline (f1r, Taurus)

False positive: 35%=35% (f1r), 41%=41% (Taurus). The match = chance.

Published solutionsClosed

Cheshire — proto-Romance (2019)

Claim. A mixed Romance language.

Test. glyph frequency/position

Rejected: EVA-x 547x too rare; incoherent cipher.

Published solutionsClosed

Gibbs — Latin abbreviations (2017)

Claim. A line in abbreviated Latin.

Test. philological review

Rejected by specialists.

Published solutionsClosed

Tucker/Talbert — American plants

Claim. New World flora.

Test. radiocarbon

Impossible: parchment 1404-1438 (pre-Columbus).

Published solutionsClosed

Newbold — micro-marks (1921)

Claim. A Roger Bacon cipher in the micro-strokes.

Test. review (Manly 1931)

Dismantled: a projection by the author.